The repercussions of a breach or renegotiation of a trade deal are extreme due to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules and international law, meaning that, once signed, a trade deal effectively binds the current and future UK Governments to its terms.
The Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) has therefore expressed major concerns in response to recent reports saying that the terms offered by the UK Government Department of International Trade for a UK - Australia trade deal could significantly increase the volume of food produced in Australia that can be imported into the UK tariff-free.
The EU’s previous agreement with Australia allowed 7,150 tonnes of beef and 19,186 tonnes of lamb to be imported into EU countries, but following Brexit the quota was split, allowing Australia to import 3,761 of beef and 13,335 tonnes of lamb into the UK.
The UK Government is attempting to defend the phasing out of this quota on the grounds that current import volumes from Australia are below this low quota and are unlikely to rise.
Yet this begs the question why Australia is fighting hard for such access during negotiations if they do not think they will increase exports to the UK. In fact, numerous Australian sources have confirmed that the UK is a major target for expanding their exports, with their biggest beef exporter predicting a ten-fold increase in exports to the UK.
It is clear that the Welsh and British public is opposed to opening the flood-gates to food produced to lower standards in other countries, and the FUW fully supports those in Defra who are fighting such proposals.
While UK administrations are committed to increasing controls and restrictions for farmers who are already producing food to world-leading standards over and above countries such as Australia, the prospect of trade deals that allow for the importation of food which would be illegal to produce here is simply unacceptable, a policy the Union has expressed repeatedly over the past five years.
The UK Government’s own figures estimate that a liberal UK-Australia trade deal would increase Australian imports to the UK by 82% and UK exports to Australia by 7%. The benefits for the UK are estimated to be between 0.01% (one 100th of a percent!) and 0.02% of the UK’s GVA over fifteen years.
We also must not forget that the EU is the destination for around a third of Welsh lamb, 90% of Welsh beef exports and 95% of Welsh dairy exports. The EU will need to raise the non-tariff barriers that have already caused a major fall in UK food exports, to prevent the UK becoming a back-door for imports that contravene its own standards and trade deals (failure by the EU to prevent such imports would also breach WTO rules).
The FUW made these and other points clear during recent meetings with UK Minister for Trade Policy Greg Hands and in a letter sent to Prime Minister Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP.
While we would want to see a trade deal with Australia that benefits the whole of the UK and the potential benefits to Welsh agriculture of the UK’s membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), such agreements should not be detrimental to UK agriculture.
Furthermore, the final round of trade talks between the UK and New Zealand are ongoing and New Zealand Trade Minister Damien O’Connor has said that he is aware of the media reports in relation to the UK - Australia trade negotiations and that they will be expecting comprehensive tariff elimination, including on agricultural goods. The UK Government has simply shown everyone their cards before placing any bets.
The UK Government must uphold its own promises and values by preventing such food produced to lower standards from being sold in the UK, however long negotiations take.