[caption id="attachment_3784" align="aligncenter" width="640"] FUW president Emyr Jones ,second from right, chairs the question and answer panel of speakers ,from left, James Severn, Duncan Montgomery, Stuart Agnew and Prof Chris Pollock[/caption]

The uncertain future for farming was compared with the unpredictability of the weather at the Farmers' Union of Wales' annual conference held at Aberystwyth yesterday (Thursday November 15) on the topic "Future Harvests: Sowing the seeds for the next decade".

Setting the scene, FUW president Emyr Jones told delegates: "Our reliance on the weather, and its unpredictability, makes some of us pessimistic, even negligent, about planning for the future.

"If we don't know whether we can cut hay, spread fertiliser, or drill seeds for days - sometimes hours - before the event, how can we contemplate the next decade?

"At the moment, we have no certainty about the future shape of EU agricultural policy, despite the fact that changes to the policy will have a huge impact on our businesses and that is a very worrying factor for every farmer in Wales.

"If we are to run our businesses effectively, we have to face the future with open eyes. We have to change the ways in which we operate in order to prepare for the future - however uncertain that future is."

"We can be certain there will be more people to feed, and less land on which to produce food to feed them, and we will rely on scientists and policymakers, whether in the UK or Europe, to help agriculture meet those growing needs."

The conference then heard the thoughts of four speakers on how the industry might address these issues.

Aberystwyth University honorary professor Chris Pollock, former chief scientific officer to the First Minister in Wales and chair of the Advisory Committee on Releases into the Environment, dealt with bovine TB and GM crops.

He said bTB is serious, spreading and difficult to manage. "It is spread within herds, via cattle movements and via a third party - badgers. All three elements need to be addressed to solve the problem. You can't pick and choose which one.

"Better testing, rapid removal of reactors and enforced movement controls address the first two elements and - to its eternal credit - the farming industry did this with relatively little criticism."

Referring to the current Welsh Government's bTB policy, Prof Pollock said in areas of high disease incidence vaccination will not prevent infected badgers from infecting cattle.

"Under the previous administration, where localised culling was to be implemented as a pilot, it could be argued that Welsh policy development, implementation and monitoring were strongly evidence-based and dealt as effectively as possible with uncertainty.

"In my opinion, the uncertainties surrounding culling were not sufficient evidence to move to a less effective but politically more acceptable alternative and that is why I fell out with the current administration."

On GM crops, Prof Pollock said there was no scientific evidence that the technology is inherently unsafe and they had a 20-year history of safe use worldwide.

"Faced with the same evidence, Scotland and Wales have chosen - for political reasons - to oppose all GM cultivation although not importation. To its credit the Whitehall administration has consistently voted with the evidence and supported release.

"Is it any wonder that many of us think that evidence-based policy making will generally lose out to policy-based evidence-making?"

James Severn, director of farm business consultants Andersons Northern (England) Ltd, spoke about joint farming ventures and the benefits of working together to become more profitable, sustainable, efficient and competitive.

He outlined four typical "Share to Farm" projects which his firm had been involved with and explained that volatility within the industry was a very real concern and a huge issue facing farmers.

"Output prices and input costs pose a very significant challenge to farming businesses. But working together can offer huge benefits," he added.

East of England UKIP MEP, Norfolk farmer Stuart Agnew, a member of the European Parliament's agriculture and rural development committee, revealed he is often a lone voice speaking up for British farmers and trying to make the committee understand the practical effects of their proposals on farmers in the real world.

He backed many of Prof Pollock's views on GM crops and claimed opposition to them was "fuelled by a hatred of capitalism".

Shrewsbury-based taxation expert Duncan Montgomery, of chartered accountants Whittingham Riddell, delivered a wide-ranging perspective on measures to overcome the barriers to succession for young entrants to farming.

Farmers' Union of Wales president's chosen charity - Cancer Research Wales - is a winner thanks to a national children's competition organised by the union to design a Christmas card with a farming theme which attracted hundreds of entries.

A selection of cards will form a colourful centrepiece to the FUW's stand at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair in Builth Wells on November 26 and 27 where the public will be able to purchase the winners' cards in packs of 10 for £5 with the proceeds going to Cancer Research Wales.

The cards are also available to buy from FUW county offices throughout Wales or by mail order from the union's head office in Aberystwyth.

FUW president Emyr Jones said: "The competition was a roaring success, attracting hundreds of entries from across Wales. The standard was very high and presented the judges with a tough task when it came to choosing the winners.

"I would like to thank every single child who entered the competition and to tell them that without their participation the contest would not have been such a success. I would also like to express my gratitude to the staff at the schools up and down the country that assisted the FUW in the running of the competition.

"It gave children in urban and rural areas of Wales an opportunity to connect with the farming industry and express their thoughts in a creative and colourful way. I believe it is vital that we as farmers maintain a strong link with young people so that they understand the way that food is produced in this country."

The competition was split into two categories - English and Welsh designs. The Welsh category was won by 10-year-old Gwenllian Evans, a pupil at Narberth CP School. Her winning design depicted a comical Christmas sheep grazing on a hill beneath fluffy white clouds.

The winner of the English category was nine-year-old Hannah Griffiths, a pupil at Bigyn Primary School, Llanelli, whose winning picture showed sheep and pigs during a starry winter's night on a hill topped with Christmas trees.

Both win a £30 gift voucher for themselves, a packet of the cards depicting their design and a £50 cheque for their school.

The judging panel also decided to make a last-minute, highly-commended award to 10-year-old Gracie-Lou Randles, a pupil at Narberth CP School, as they were delighted with her design of a Christmas ewe. She will also receive a £30 gift voucher for herself.

Welsh Assembly environment and sustainability committee chairman Dafydd Elis Thomas will be one of the speakers at the annual general meeting of the Farmers' Union of Wales Caernarfonshire county branch at Nanhoron Hotel, Nefyn, this Friday (November 9) at 7.30pm.

The other speakers are Euryn Jones, regional agriculture manager for Wales of HSBC Bank who are sponsoring the meeting, and FUW director of agricultural policy Dr Nick Fenwick.

FUW county executive officer Gwynedd Watkin said: "The evening will be an excellent opportunity for members to listen to the views of the guest speakers on the future of the industry, with the main emphasis on the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy."

[caption id="attachment_3772" align="aligncenter" width="500"] Dilwyn and Geraint, right, Jenkins in the milking parlour at Cerrigcaranau, Talybont, near Aberystwyth.[/caption]

Welsh Affairs Select Committee members carrying out an inquiry into the future of dairy farming in Wales will get  first-hand experience of life on a Farmers' Union of Wales member's farm near Aberystwyth tomorrow (Thursday November 8 at 11.15am).

Before taking part in an evidence session at Aberystwyth University's MedRus Conference Centre, committee members will pay a 45-minute visit to 510-acre Cerrigcaranau Farm at nearby Talybont to hear the views of farmer Dilwyn Jenkins and his sons Eifion (29) and Geraint (25).

The farm is run, with a mixture of enterprises under organic management, in three blocks with 110 Holstein Friesian cows milked, 30 pedigree Welsh Black cows, 230 breeding ewes, 80 acres of barley, five acres of fodder beet and two acres of swedes.

After the farm visit (at 2.15pm) FUW senior policy officer Hazel Wright and chairman of the union's milk and dairy produce committee, Holywell dairy farmer Dei (Correct spelling) Davies, will present evidence to the committee revealing that low and volatile dairy farm profitability has eroded confidence in the sector.

The union will enforce the message that if the current problems are not tackled, the Welsh dairy industry will face an uncertain future and a continued reduction in the number of dairy producers.

The FUW has already provided written evidence to the committee which states that Wales has about 1,900 dairy farmers - about 20% of the total amount in England and Wales - yet the number of farmers has declined steadily since the end of the last century.

Compared to 2002 there are now 40% fewer dairy farmers in Wales and last summer the industry suffered a major crisis caused by price cuts announced by retailers and processors. Although some price cuts were later withdrawn, the long-term sustainability of the industry remains uncertain.

"We relish the opportunity to discuss the short and long-term challenges facing the Welsh dairy sector with members of the Welsh Affairs Select Committee," said Mr Davies.

"In our written evidence we have discussed the benefits of retaining traditional family farms by redressing imbalances of power along the supply chain, ensuring fair contractual arrangements and encouraging better co-operation between farmers.

"With this in mind, the impact of the EU Dairy Package, the UK Groceries Code Adjudicator Bill and the voluntary Dairy Code of Practice on contractual relations will be some of the key elements under discussion," added Mr Davies.

The union's written evidence also discusses the potential effect of the abolition of milk quotas and the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the Welsh dairy sector.