The proposed five-year badger cull in north Pembrokeshire could slash heartbreaking bovine TB herd outbreaks by between 68 and 81 and that could easily be an underestimate, the Farmers' Union of Wales revealed at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair today.

The figures were included in the union's response to a Welsh Assembly Government consultation paper on badger culling in the area which includes 321 farms with cattle.

Computer modelling based upon the results of previous badger culls predicts that a cull in north Pembrokeshire could reduce confirmed herd outbreaks by between 30 and 44 during a five year culling period, and by around 38 in the four years afterwards.

The results form part of the FUW's comprehensive evidence supporting WAG's proposals, in which the union makes it clear that those who believe badger culling doesn't work are "by definition, wrong".

FUW vice president and bTB spokesman Brian Walters said: "The bottom line is that if badger culling wasn't going to work, then we wouldn't be supporting it.

"The fact of the matter is that all the evidence shows it works, and there is no other proven method which would have such a dramatic effect on TB incidences in the area.

"The bTB breakdown rate in the intensive action area (IAA) is one of the highest in the northern hemisphere, and the disease desperately needs to be dealt with in the area to minimise the risk to other mammals including humans."

The response highlights the fact that the badger culling in the Irish Four Counties trials led to a 60-96% decrease in the rate at which herds became the subject of confirmed bTB restriction and that, in the four years after culling came to an end in the English Badger Culling Trial areas, incidences were reduced in and around proactive culling areas by 34.1% and 5.6% respectively.

The latter equates to around 155 confirmed herd breakdowns being prevented in and around the ten English culling areas between June 2006 and July 2010.

The FUW's response also makes a number of points in relation to specific questions raised in the WAG consultation document including the use of an injectable vaccine, and access to land for culling.

"Modelling work recently produced by the Food and Environment Research Agency suggests that injecting badgers with vaccine could help reduce disease incidences in cattle, but that both ring vaccination around culling areas, and culling alone are likely to be more effective strategies," said Mr Walters.

"The work also suggests that an approach involving both culling and ring vaccination would require considerably more resources than culling alone.

"The FUW fully supports the development of an effective and safe oral vaccine for badgers as a means by which to reduce the prevalence of bTB in cattle and badgers and would support ring vaccination around culling areas where geographic boundaries are unlikely to reduce the adverse effects of perturbation."

Members also believed that the use of an injectable badger vaccine may be acceptable as an exit strategy in areas where culling has been undertaken and disease levels had been reduced to non-endemic levels, or to protect wildlife in an area which is free from bTB.

The union's response also provides its full backing for compulsory access to land in order to cull.

"It is illegal to prevent the culling of cattle which may pose a disease risk to other animals, and the same principle should apply for badgers," said Mr Walters.

"Objections to culling during the English culling trials had an adverse impact on the results of those trials since not all land could be accessed for culling.

"Minimising such disruption by specifically making obstruction illegal will therefore increase the positive benefits of badger culling and help ensure that the anonymity of those who consent to culling on their land is preserved."

A Monmouthshire student who has won the Farmers' Union of Wales annual £700 student bursary today called for agriculture to be taught in schools from primary level in a bid to improve the image of an industry in which the average age of a farmer in Wales is 59.

Nineteen-year-old Phillippa Maidment, who has just started a rural property management course at Harper Adams University College in Shropshire, made the demand in a 1,000-word essay submitted with her bursary application.

She was presented with her bursary cheque on the FUW stand at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair when a second bursary of £200 was also handed to another Harper Adams student, 18-year-old Sion Gwynedd Roberts, of Simdde Hir, Llannefydd, near Denbigh, who is studying agricultural engineering.

A third bursary of £100 was presented to 18-year-old Aberystwyth University student Gwyn Pierce, of Gelli-Haf, Llangyndeyrn, Carmarthenshire, who is studying agriculture with animal science.

Apart from being a keen member of her local young farmers' club, Phillippa's family has no direct link to farming.

Entitled "What should the Welsh farming industry and government do to attract more young people into agriculture?", her essay suggested that as too few young people are choosing a career in agriculture there could be drastic effects on the farming industry.

"As the majority of farmers are members of the older generation there is lack of new ideas coming into agriculture. This could be preventing farmers from increasing their income," wrote Phillippa, whose home is at Undy, near Caldicot.

In her essay, she stated: "One major problem restricting the younger generation from being part of the farming industry is that it currently has a very negative profile.

"If you ask most young people for their opinion on farming the common response is that it provides a low income, long hours and is hard work. Another problem is that the younger generation do not have the opportunity to take part and get the feel of farm life unless they are from a farming background.

"As a young person myself, if I was not a member of young farmers I would find it incredibly difficult to gain knowledge or experience on a farm. But how can this problem be addressed?

An obvious way to begin to tackle this problem would be to introduce agriculture in to the classroom from an early age, starting at primary school level. Children need to learn the basic farm animals and where their food comes from.

"A fun and exciting way to do this is by providing farm visits. In Wales there are community farms, such as Greenmeadow Community Farm in Cwmbran which provides children with a hands-on educational experience, which is fun and very interesting for all.

"However, not all communities are lucky enough to have an open farm due to the costs of implementing health and safety regulations. One way in which the government could help overcome this issue is by providing farmers with grants and resources to enable them to cater for groups of school children and comply with health and safety regulations.

"Once these children have completed primary school they will have valuable knowledge on agriculture as a whole. This needs to be maintained and improved when they move to comprehensive school.

"Schools could provide pupils from non-farming backgrounds with agricultural experience through a youth learning scheme. Schemes similar to this are already offered for trades such as bricklaying and plastering and have seen great accomplishment. This could also be true of farming.

"I understand it would be tough to get farmers to accept this and having young people on their farm could be daunting. However, if young people aren't given the chance then they will never learn."

FUW president Gareth Vaughan praised all 23 applicants for the high standards of their written submissions which were based on climate change challenges for farming and food production in Wales; how to attract more young people into agriculture; and how to give the Welsh farming industry a higher public profile.

"The panel of three judges were very impressed by the fresh ideas, expressed so clearly by many of the applicants to overcome the challenges that are currently facing Welsh farming," Mr Vaughan added.

The Farmers' Union of Wales today launched the first of a number of detailed consultations with members over the future of the Common Agricultural Policy after 2013, following the European Commission's publication of broad proposals earlier this month.

The consultation asks FUW county branch committees to consider the two issues of capping Single Payments and possible ways of distributing Pillar 1 payments within Wales.

Launching the consultation at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair, the FUW's president Gareth Vaughan said: "Pillar 1 payments represent the injection of hundreds of millions of pounds into Welsh rural communities each year, and the European Commission have made a number of broad recommendations as to how money should be distributed after 2013.

"Included amongst these are the suggestion that payments to businesses might be capped, and I believe that it is essential that we gather the views of members on this and other possible payment options, rather than dismissing the Commission's proposals out of hand."

The Commission has proposed that the current system, where Welsh payments are based on historic claims made in the years 2000 to 2002, should be phased out in favour of a flat-rate per hectare basis.

However, they have also suggested that a ceiling or cap should apply for large payments, which could also take account of number of employees on particular farms.

"During the 2007 Health Check negotiations, the Union successfully argued in favour of keeping our historically based payment system. However, the movement to a flat or flatter rate payment system is by now inevitable.

"It is therefore essential that we consider all possible options, including capping, and lobby for flexibility from Europe to implement a system which best suits Wales's farming industry and takes account of the needs of farms in different regions of Wales.

"As a democratic union, it is only right that we conduct a rolling consultation with members on important issues such as these."

The Farmers' Union of Wales today welcomed the decision to set up an independent review panel into the Welsh Assembly Government's controversial land management scheme, Glastir, after it received fewer than 3,000 applications from farmers.

"Some serious questions now need to be asked as to why we are in this situation," said FUW president Gareth Vaughan. "The FUW has been expressing its profound concerns about the scheme for over twelve months and it is only now the Assembly have woken up to the fact that the scheme is currently impractical for many farmers.

"Last year the union called for a 12-month delay to the introduction of the scheme so that it could be fully thought out, piloted and all elements launched at the same time so that farmers could make considered business decisions.

"It is, therefore, no surprise that less than 20% of those who expressed an interest in the scheme have actually submitted application forms, and we are sadly now in a 'we told you so' situation.

"However, the decision by the Minister to establish an independent review panel to try and make the scheme more practical must be welcomed, providing the advice of the panel is fully accepted by the Assembly and acted upon quickly."