A paper published by the Farmers' Union of Wales today (Monday July 19) suggests badger culling in north Pembrokeshire could reduce bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) incidences by around a third - and this could even be a significant underestimate.

The paper, prepared by the union's agricultural policy director Dr Nicholas Fenwick, uses computer modelling and the results of previous scientific studies to predict the outcome of badger culling in a number of areas.

It suggests that a badger cull in north Pembrokeshire could reduce bTB herd incidences by 30% during a five-year cull, and by 32% in a three-and-a-half-year period following culling.

FUW's bTB spokesman, Carmarthen dairy farmer Brian Walters, said: "There is only one approach which has been shown scientifically to reduce bTB incidences in hotspot areas where bTB is endemic in badgers, and that is culling.

"This paper builds upon the modelling work done by the Independent Science Group in 2007 and looks at what would happen in a range of different situations if the results of the English badger culling trials were replicated in other areas."

The work also highlights the fact that legislation to minimise the types of problems experienced during the English trials, such as obstruction and interference with trapping, is likely to add significantly to the positive effects seen in England.

"We know that the chances of a confirmed bTB case in cattle herds fell by between 62% and 95% in the Irish badger culling trials and we would expect a well planned cull in north Pembrokeshire, coupled with legislation to discourage interference and obstruction, to achieve results closer to those figures rather the English ones," said Mr Walters.

The paper also predicts falls in numbers of individual bTB cattle reactors in north Pembrokeshire of 15% during the culling period and 28% in a three-year period after culling, based upon the English culling trial results.

"This work shows that, even if the problems experienced during the English culls do occur, a cull could prevent around 90 herd outbreaks over an eight-and-a-half-year period, which would represent a massive reduction," added Mr Walters.

"We have already provided the Welsh Assembly Government with this evidence which we believe shows that badger culling can substantially reduce bTB in north Pembrokeshire.

"Following the Court of Appeal's recent judgement against the TB Order, we have urged the Welsh Assembly Government to do all it can to put new legislation in place to allow a cull to go ahead.

"The evidence on badger culling from the Irish and English trials is conclusive: it works, and can lead to significant reductions in bTB. The farming community in north Pembrokeshire deserves to see matters progressing towards a cull as soon as possible.

"Without decisive, science-based action we will not see the outcome we all want, which is cattle and badgers free of disease. This paper adds to the already large base of scientific evidence which shows that the Welsh Assembly Government is right to pursue a badger cull to help eradicate bTB."

FinalRBCTAnalysis19thJuly2010

[caption id="attachment_4830" align="aligncenter" width="300"] From left, Roger Williams, Zhou Xiaoming, Lord Livsey, Gareth Vaughan and Meat Promotion Wales - Hybu Cig Cymru chairman Rees Roberts[/caption]

Attempts to put Welsh red meat on the menu in China could take a leap forward at this year's Royal Welsh Show, according to the Farmers' Union of Wales.

Last January a guest speaker at the union's annual lunch in the House of Lords - held to celebrate the Home Grown Cereals Authority's Farmhouse Breakfast Week - was Zhou Xiaoming, Minister Counsellor in charge of trade and investment issues, including agriculture, between China and the UK.

And during the function he expressed his interest in attending the Royal Welsh Show. He will now tour the Llanelwedd showground on the opening day (July 19) and spend 45 minutes at the FUW Pavilion (from 2.15pm to 3 o'clock) meeting the president Gareth Vaughan and other members of the union's presidential team.

Mr Vaughan said today that at the lunch Mr Xiaoming revealed his country could offer market opportunities for Welsh beef and sheep producers. "He told us Wales had a lot to offer the people of China and that as their incomes increase, the Chinese consumer was looking more and more for imported meat products.

"In fact, in the first 11 months of 2009, China imported $7m-worth of pig products and $50m-worth of beef and I remember Mr Xiaoming saying that the door to China is now open to meat products from different countries and they are ready to help connect us with Chinese markets, not least with Welsh Black beef and mountain lamb."

The Minister Counsellor's invitation to the FUW's Lords function, hosted by former Liberal Democrat MP for Brecon and Radnor Lord Livsey of Talgarth, was initiated by Lord Livsey's successor as MP, Roger Williams, who led a delegation to the Chinese Embassy in London two years ago to promote Welsh Lamb.

Mr Williams began the bid to boost exports to China when he arranged for farmers from his constituency to supply 40kg of Welsh Lamb for a Chinese New Year reception at the Chinese Embassy in January 2008.

The idea was first discussed when Mr Williams' neighbour Glyn Jones, a farmer and director of Farmers Fresh which manages an abattoir and is directly involved in the export market, came up with the idea to promote Welsh Lamb.

Mr Vaughan added: "Welsh Lamb is the best lamb in the world and the Chinese market presents a massive opportunity for the Welsh agricultural sector. In the past decade alone, meat consumption in China has been rising at an average of 2kg per capita per year.

"If Chinese consumers choose to spend this money on Welsh Lamb then, apart from the high quality product they will receive, domestic meat producers will benefit."

Average meat consumption in China is now 54kg/person, compared to 70-130kg/person in Western countries. Forty years ago, it was just 4kg/person in China.

[caption id="attachment_4827" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Older People's Commissioner for Wales Ruth Marks[/caption]

The concerns of older people living in rural areas of Wales will come under the spotlight next week at the Farmers' Union of Wales pavilion alongside the main ring at the Royal Welsh Show in Builth Wells (July 19-22).

Older People's Commissioner for Wales Ruth Marks will spend 90 minutes on the stand on Wednesday July 21 (from 9.30am to 11am) meeting older people from around the country and hearing about the issues affecting them.

"I want to work in partnership with the FUW to learn more about the issues affecting older people living in rural areas around Wales," she said.

"People raise many concerns with us including the lack of transport - especially in relation to travelling to hospitals or visiting relatives in care homes - problems accessing services, problems with broadband internet access and lack of choice of domiciliary care services.

"I am also aware that older people have concerns about rural isolation, which is a major issue affecting individuals across the country.

"The Big Lottery Fund has recently launched the AdvantAGE programme, making £20m available for projects across Wales working with people over 50, specialising in advocacy and befriending services.

"It is important that older people live full and active lives and have access to relevant information and services. As Commissioner, I support the aims of the programme and feel it is a step forward in improving the quality of life for older people in Wales."

Her Commission has developed a partnership with The Pension Service to highlight the importance of older people claiming the financial benefits they are entitled to.

Pension Service representative Ken Davies will be available at the FUW pavilion throughout Tuesday and Wednesday (July 20 and 21) and Llandysul community pharmacist Richard Evans will be at the pavilion on Monday offering lifestyle health checks.

"Claiming the benefits you are entitled to can mean being able to afford a healthier lifestyle through better nutrition as well as having more money to get out and about and access facilities and activities," said Mrs Marks.

"I am grateful to everyone who has contacted me to tell me about their concerns and examples of good practice. It is through listening to and learning from older people that we have been able to root all our work in what matters most to them."

[caption id="attachment_4824" align="aligncenter" width="300"] The FUW has donated the official scarlet jackets that all seven members of the Welsh team will be wearing during the ceremony.[/caption]

The Farmers' Union of Wales will play a colourful part in the spectacular opening ceremony laid on by the Royal Welsh Agricultural Society (RWAS) for the world shearing championships on the first day of next week's Royal Welsh Show on Monday (July 19).

The FUW has donated the official scarlet jackets that all seven members of the Welsh team will be wearing during the ceremony. They were presented with the jackets by FUW president Gareth Vaughan during the union's national annual dinner at the Metropole Hotel, Llandrindod Wells, last October.

"It is only the second time the championships have been held in Wales - the previous occasion was in 1994 - so we are proud to be associated with the Welsh team this time and we wish them every success in the competition," said Mr Vaughan.

During the opening ceremony the Welsh team and 26 other teams representing competing countries will be led on stage at the showground's Meirion Shearing Centre by young attendants dressed in traditional Welsh colours.

The championships will then be declared open to a fanfare of trumpets by RWAS chairman Alun Evans and, following the Welsh national anthem, clog dancers from Royal Welsh Show 2010 feature county Ceredigion will perform.