As we enter a New Year in which we all hope to return to some kind of normality, the UK’s genuine departure from the European Union after a lengthy divorce suggests 2021 will be anything but normal, irrespective of what progress is made in tackling the current coronavirus pandemic. Having breathed a collective sigh of relief after the UK and EU finally reached agreement on Christmas Eve - thereby avoiding the nightmare of tariffs that would have reduce farmgate prices for some products by 30% or more - from 1 January 2021 we will nevertheless start to see the impacts of non-tariff barriers which will make 2021 difficult to say the least for many Welsh businesses.

As the one-hundred-plus members who joined our Brexit webinar on December 17 learned, the Export Health Certificates required by food manufacturers to export products to the EU will cost around £150 to £200 each, meaning the total UK bill for certificates alone is expected to be between £45 million and £60 million in 2021 if exports continue at current rates. This is equivalent to between 3% and 4% of the value of current UK meat exports. Meanwhile, the additional costs of these and other non-tariff barriers are estimated to be between 4% and 8% - equivalent to a reduction of between 19p and 40p per deadweight kilo based on last year’s SQQ lamb prices.

We also have certainty regarding the budget that will replace our EU Common Agricultural Policy budget: in December 2019, the UK Government announced a Welsh BPS budget that took no account of the 15% Pillar Transfer, leaving a funding gap of £42 million. Then in November this year, they announced a Welsh funding allocation that increases this funding gap for 2021-2022 to £137 million - equivalent to a cut of around 41%.

Welsh farmers and food producers have sighed a huge sigh of relief after it was revealed that the UK and EU are close to agreeing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) covering key Welsh products.

Speaking after news of the breakthrough broke on Wednesday evening (December 23), FUW President Glyn Roberts said: "The consequences of a no deal for farming and other industries would be catastrophic, so it was always hoped that common sense would prevail.

"However, there was always a risk that refusals to compromise on one or other side could lead to the worst case scenario."

Mr Roberts also welcomed the EU's formal listing of the UK as a 'Third Country' - a move which is essential in terms of allowing Welsh food exports to the EU.

"However, our access to the EU market, which is the destination for three quarters of Welsh food and drink exports, will still face significant barriers after 31st Decembers, with non-tariff barrier costs expected to rise by 4 to 8 percent."

Mr Roberts said the full text of an agreement would have to be scrutinised in order to assess the full impacts and benefits, and a number of concerns existed including in terms of seed potato exports.

"Nevertheless, the Welsh farming industry, like others the length and breadth of Great Britain, will be celebrating Christmas having breathed a huge sigh of relief that a deal seems close to being agreed."

The Farmers’ Union of Wales has welcomed the Welsh Government’s announcement of a direct payment ceiling that will ensure Basic Payments Scheme (BPS) payments in 2021 remain at the same level as in 2020.

Lesley Griffiths, Welsh Government Minister for Environment, Energy and Rural Affairs, announced on Monday (21 December) a total direct payment ceiling of £238 million for the 2021 BPS.

Speaking after the announcement, FUW President Glyn Roberts said: “We very much welcome the Minister’s confirmation that she intends to provide financial security for farming families and the tens of thousands of rural businesses they support at a time of unprecedented uncertainty.”

Nestled in the Pembrokeshire countryside just outside of Haverfordwest, the Miles family have made their home and livelihood on a dairy farm. Having moved to the Pembrokeshire countryside in 1997 Dai, Sharron and son Llŷr farm in partnership. 

The business was started by Dai and Sharron, who took on the tenancy of Barnsley Farm, a 143 acres farm. At the time it was a stock/arable unit which they converted into an organic dairy unit starting with 33 cows and leased milk quota. In 2001 they took on a further 90 acres of pasture land and then in 2005 the neighbouring farm within the same estate. 

In 2018 they purchased the neighbouring farm Beudy Bach, from the estate and installed a modern robotic milking system on the holding and son Llyr has joined the business after returning from Aberystwyth University where he studied agriculture. 

Llŷr said: “Mum and dad have always been farming, and I’ve had an interest in farming so went to Aberystwyth Uni to study agriculture and took a year in industry, then came home. It’s what I enjoy doing and it’s what I want to do.” 

Across the holdings, the family look after 110 hectares and 35 hectares of summer grazing for the heifers and use for silage. In the milking herd they have 130 cows and 60 followers. “We predominantly keep British Friesian cows and only occasionally buy some in, but we rear our own British Friesians. They're a great, hardy breed of cow, which we graze from February to November, they produce great milk from grass,” said Llŷr.